Abstracts of Reprints 710–729

Notes: IRP reprints are not available online or in hard copy due to copyright restrictions, please refer to the citation given in the article. Reprints are listed in reverse order of reprint number.

Immigration and Internal Migration "Flight" from U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Toward a New Demographic Balkanisation

William H. Frey

RPT 729. 1995. 25 pp.

(Urban Studies)

This article examines the migration dynamics underlying the uneven race and ethnic demographic growth patterns which are characterizing the revival of urban growth in the U.S. The findings make clear that recent immigration to the U.S. plays a significant role in shaping these patterns. The impacts of the recent, increasing volume of immigration to the U.S. has become the subject of much debate among academics, government officials and policy analysts. Yet most of these debates centre around the effects recent immigration holds for job displacement of specific demographic groups, or the effects that both legal and illegal immigrants impose upon government expenditures. The findings presented here suggest that immigration holds important implications for broad internal redistribution patterns of the U.S. population--both directly, and indirectly by influencing an internal migration which is selective on race and socio-economic status. This analysis of 1990 census migration data points up the distinction between major metropolitan areas that are impacted most heavily by immigration from abroad; and areas where internal migration represents the greatest component of change.

The metropolitan area typology presented here suggests that there is a clear distinction between metropolitan areas that can be classed as high immigration metros, and other classes of metropolitan areas where population changes are more greatly affected by economic cycles and other forces which determine the ebbs and flows of internal migration streams.

Race and Unemployment: Labor Market Experiences of Black and White Men, 1968-1988

Franklin D. Wilson, Marta Tienda, and Lawrence Wu

RPT 728. 1995. 21 pp.

(Work and Occupations)

This article addresses two questions: First, why is Black unemployment persistently higher than White unemployment? Second, how can this fact be reconciled with narrowing Black/White differentials in educational attainment, occupational position, and earnings? We show that the persistent racial gap in unemployment is due to differential access to employment opportunities by region, occupational placement, labor market segmentation by race, and labor market discrimination. Our findings showing that the racial gap in unemployment is greatest for college-educated men and are consistent with the view that Blacks still encounter barriers to employment in the labor market.

"Welfare Magnets" and Benefit Decline: Symbolic Problems and Substantive Consequences

Sanford F. Schram and Gary Krueger

RPT 727. 1995. 21 pp.

(Publius: The Journal of Federalism)

In response to concern about "welfare migration," some states have been freezing benefit levels and trying to institute lower benefits for newly arrived out-of-state applicants. There is also evidence that rising welfare rolls lead states not to raise benefits. Yet, interstate variation in welfare benefits has narrowed over the last two decades. There is also evidence that while interstate competition, or comparison of benefit levels, discourages high-benefit states from raising benefits, states look more at themselves then they look at each other. The most significant factor affecting AFDC benefit-levels appears to lie in the intergovernmental arrangements for financing public assistance (i.e., states often allow Food Stamps and Medicaid to substitute for AFDC). In addition, the migration of poor female-headed families is patterned after the migration of the population in general; they move to where there is job growth. A major political consequence of stressing welfare migration may be its symbolic value in reinforcing prejudices against welfare recipients.

Piecing Together Child Care with Multiple Arrangements: Crazy Quilt or Preferred Pattern for Employed Parents of Preschool Children?

Karen Fox Folk and Yunae Yi

RPT 726. 1995. 12 pp.

(Journal of Marriage and the Family)

This study uses data on 469 employed mothers from the 1987 National Survey of Families and Households to examine the ways both single and married mothers of preschoolers combine child care arrangements for preschool children and what factors affect use of multiple versus single child care arrangements. Married mothers on average use fewer hours of care from fathers and relatives than do single mothers, but both fathers and relatives provide a substantial proportion of the total hours of child care in multiple care combinations. Logistic regression analyses find that mothers with a varying work schedule, those who work more than 40 hours per week, those with more education, and those in families with the father as main child care provider are more likely to use multiple care arrangements. Mothers working less than 20 hours per week are less likely to use multiple care.

Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray

Arthur S. Goldberger and Charles F. Manski

RPT 725. 1995. 15 pp.

(Journal of Economic Literature)

A serious scientific book should be the culmination of a program of research that has been subjected to external scientific scrutiny, revised appropriately in the light of that scrutiny, and iteratively honed into a well-reasoned and credible final form. In this paradigm, research that purports to be scientific would first be reviewed on its scientific merits. Only if that review is passed successfully would society at large be concerned with the research.

The authors and their publishers have done a disservice by circumventing peer review. The Bell Curve was sprung full blown without external scientific scrutiny, but with beautifully orchestrated initial publicity.

Through essays like ours, a process of scientific review is now under way. But, given the process to date, peer review of The Bell Curve is now an exercise in damage control rather than prevention.

Local Labor Markets and Local Area Effects on Welfare Duration

John M. Fitzgerald

RPT 724. 1995. 25 pp.

(Journal of Policy Analysis and Management)

The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) has become an important tool for studying how long people stay on welfare programs because it has monthly data on a variety of welfare programs. This article presents estimates of duration models for unmarried women with children who are on the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program (AFDC) using the 1984 and 1985 panels of SIPP. A Weakness in previous welfare duration studies is that they do not include local labor market conditions or other local area effects; this omission may bias the estimated effects of policy variables (such as benefit levels) and labor market variables. This article incorporates relevant local area information from the City County Data Book and links this to SIPP welfare recipients based on county of residence. I find that local variables such as unemployment rates or per capita sales affect welfare exit rates, especially for blacks. Living in an urban area lengthens welfare spells for both whites and blacks.

Adolescent Premarital Childbearing: Do Economic Incentives Matter?

Shelly Lundberg and Robert D. Plotnick

RPT 723. 1995. 24 pp.

(Journal of Labor Economics)

We develop an empirical model of adolescent premarital childbearing in which a woman's decisions affect a sequence of outcomes: premarital pregnancy, pregnancy resolution, and the occurrence of marriage before the birth. State welfare, abortion, and family planning policies alter the costs and benefits of these outcomes. For white adolescents welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have significant effects on these outcomes consistent with theoretical expectations. Black adolescents' behavior shows no association with the policy variables. The different racial results may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior.

State AFDC Rules Regarding the Treatment of Cohabitors: 1993

Robert A. Moffitt, Robert T. Reville, and Anne E. Winkler

RPT 722. 1995. 8 pp.

(Social Security Bulletin)

This article reports the results of a survey of State Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) rules regarding the treatment of unrelated cohabitors in households containing AFDC units. We examine State treatment of cash and in-kind contributions by cohabitors and find that the AFDC grant is usually not affected if the cohabitor makes in-kind contributions toward food and shelter expenses of the household. However, the grant generally is reduced if the cohabitor contributes cash to the AFDC unit unless the cash is for shared household expenses. In addition, a few States have specific policies toward cohabitors that are not based on initial evidence of cohabitor contributions.

Adolescent Fertility and the Educational Attainment of Young Women

Daniel H. Klepinger, Shelly Lundberg, and Robert Plotnick

RPT 721. 1995. 6 pp.

(Family Planning Perspectives)

Analyses based on a sample of 2,795 women interviewed annually from 1979 through 1991 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that early childbearing lowers the educational attainment of young women. After controls for an extensive set of personal and community characteristics are taken into account, having a child before age 20 significantly reduces schooling attained by almost three years among whites, blacks and Hispanics. Having a child before age 18 has a significant effect only among blacks, reducing years of schooling by 1.2 years.

Has the Decline in Benefits Shortened Welfare Spells?

Hilary Hoynes and Thomas MaCurdy

RPT 720. 1995. 6 pp.

(American Economic Review)

We explore how one important dimension of welfare dependency has changed over the last two decades, namely, dependency measured by the lengths of welfare spells. After identifying the trends underlying the shifts in distribution of spells, we explore three sources for explaining the observed shifts: 1) changes in the composition of the recipient population; 2) changes in public-assistance benefits for female heads of household; and 3) changes in labor-market opportunities. We find that the length of welfare spells decreased significantly between the mid-1970's and the early 1980's, but increased in the 1980's. While changes in welfare benefits play some role in explaining the trends in welfare dependency, changes in labor-market opportunities appear to play even a smaller role. After controlling for demographic and economic variables, some of the trend in welfare dependency persists.

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The Effect of Health on the Work Effort of Single Mothers

Barbara L. Wolfe and Steven C. Hill

RPT 719. 1995. 21 pp.

(The Journal of Human Resources)

Data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation are used to investigate ways in which health influences a single mother's decision whether to work: the direct effect of a woman's health on work effort and potential wage; the impact of her children's health on hours available to work; and the impact of health on the values of health insurance and Medicaid associated with work and AFDC participation, respectively. Simulations suggest that wage subsidies and decreases in AFDC benefits are unlikely to increase the labor force participation of single mothers in poor health or with disabled children, as they face limitations on work hours and the kinds of work they can perform that prohibit them from earning enough to stay out of poverty. Extending health insurance coverage to all children of single mothers regardless of AFDC status would induce a large percentage of these mothers to seek and accept employment, as would a pay-or-play insurance plan covering all workers (and their dependents) who work 15 or more hours a week.

The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market

Peter Gottschalk and Robert Moffitt

RPT 718. 1995. 56 pp.

(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)

The increase in the variance of permanent earnings is consistent with increases in the price of skill, but the increase in the variability of earnings may not be if the source of the skill-price increase is an increase in demand and a consequent increase in the relative quantities of high-skilled, low-variability jobs. We find that other factors tend to make both weekly wages and weeks worked more variable. It is known, for example, that employment has shifted from manufacturing to services and trade, sectors that likely have more variable earnings. Likewise, the shift toward nonunionized employment is likely to have raised overall variability since unionized workers have more stable earnings. These compositional changes can account for only a small part of the increase in transitory earnings, roughly 12 percent. Likewise, greater mobility between jobs and the increase in self-employment and part-time work are not sufficient to account for the majority of the increase in variability. We have observed an increase in transitory fluctuations in the earnings of persons staying in the same job even after controlling for a wide variety of factors.

The aggregate data that we examine indicate that the increased variability is not primarily a result of increased instability in the labor markets as a whole or in industry aggregates, consistent with the finding that industry shifts cannot explain much of the change. Although there is some evidence of increased variability of average industry wages, particularly for low-wage industries, this variability arises more from changes in medium-term trend rates than in high-frequency fluctuations that are ordinarily defined as transitory. Most of the increase in transitory variance appears instead to have occurred at the individual level.

Parental Structure experiences of Children: Exposure, Transitions, and Type at Birth

Roger A. Wojtkiewicz

RPT 717. 1994. 19 pp.

(Population Research and Policy Review)

This paper examines parental structure experiences during childhood and adolescence of non-Hispanic whites, blacks, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans born 1957 to 1964. The study shows that the parental structure types most commonly experienced are mother-father, mother only, and mother-stepfather. The study also finds that a significant proportion of children move into a mother-only family and do not leave it. Finally, the study shows that the parental structure experiences of children are strongly influenced by their parental structure at birth.

Gender and the Short-Run Economic Consequences of Marital Disruption

Pamela J. Smock

RPT 716. 1994. 20 pp.

(Social Forces)

Past studies on gender differences in the economic consequences of divorce have been limited to presenting descriptive statistics. This article examines sources of gender differences in the economic ramifications of marital disruption for young non- Hispanic white, black, and Hispanic adults separating or divorcing in the 1980s. Using data from the 1979-88 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, the results show that even among a less-advantaged subgroup, marital disruption has more serious consequences for women than men. Although young men, particularly minority men, are not faring well economically in absolute terms, women's postdisruption economic welfare is significantly lower than men's for all race-ethnic groups. Multivariate analyses reveal that this disparity stems, either directly or indirectly, from women's roles as primary child caretakers.

Child Support Orders: A Perspective on Reform

Irwin Garfinkel, Marygold S. Melli, and John G. Robertson

RPT 715. 1994. 17 pp.

(The Future of Children)

This article presents a brief historical account of child support reform in the United States during this century. Reform in this area primarily reflects a shift from judicial discretion to administrative regularity. The two predominant types of child support guidelines in use today, income shares and percentage of income, are described and compared. The authors then present information on some of the current issues with regard to child support guideline reform. Finally, a Child Support Assurance system, which would provide a publicly guaranteed minimum benefit award to custodial parents under special circumstances is proposed. Further discussion of child support reform is presented in the Overview and Analysis section of this journal issue.

The Child-Support Revolution

Irwin Garfinkel

RPT 714. 1994. 5 pp.

(The American Economic Review)

This article describes the traditional child-support system and the newly emerging child-support assurance system. As the provisions of the 1988 Family Support Act are implemented and new legislation is enacted, the traditional American child-support system will continue its evolution towards a new child-support assurance system. Local judicial discretion will increasingly be replaced by the bureaucratic regularity characteristic of our social-security and income tax system. At the very least, it seems likely that the federal government will provide funding for a number of the states to pilot a non-income-tested assured child support benefit.

Market work, wages, and men's health

Robert Haveman, Barbara Wolfe, Brent Kreider, and Mark Stone

RPT 713. 1994. 20 pp.

(Journal of Health Economics)

In this paper, we investigate the complex interrelations among work-time, wages, and health identified in the Grossman model of the demand for health. Hansen's generalized method of moments techniques are employed to estimate a 3-equation simultaneous model designed to capture the time dependent character of these interrelationships. We then estimate simpler models with more restrictive assumptions commonly found in the literature and find substantial differences between these estimates and those from our simultaneous model. For example, the positive relationship between work-time and health found in other studies disappears when the relevant simultaneities are taken into account.

The economics of shared custody: Developing an equitable formula for dual residence

Marygold S. Melli and Patricia R. Brown

RPT 712. 1994. 42 pp.

(Houston Law Review)

This article explores a postdivorce economic issue that has received almost no attention--that of child support in cases in which the child lives with both parents, i.e., when parents share physical custody of their child. Workable guidelines are needed in these cases for the establishment of equitable awards. We begin with an examination of a number of background issues. Part II is devoted to an attempt to define what shared custody really means. As a custody form, how does it compare to traditional sole physical custody with its provision for visitation? Part III reports some data on shared custody cases. It is followed by an analysis of the economics of shared parenting--the actual costs, the possibilities of savings, and the allocation of costs between parents. Part IV examines how child support should be allocated between time-sharing parents. The discussion is divided into two sections which look separately at equally and unequally shared time on the ground that the issues in these two situations are sufficiently different to warrant separate treatment. Parts V and VI discuss child support when time-sharing is unequal. Parts VII and VIII propose criteria for assessment and recommendations for future public policy.

Consequences of Marital Dissolution for Children

Judith A. Seltzer

RPT 711. 1994. 32 pp.

(Annual Review of Sociology)

This paper examines changes in marriage as an institution for rearing children in the United States. It reviews the effects of marital instability and living arrangements of children's welfare, and focuses on how children's economic, emotional, and social needs are met when parents separate. The review shows that changes in marriage and childrearing have different consequences for women and men. For women, marriage and parenthood are distinct institutions. Women provide for children's needs, whether or not the women are married to their children's fathers. For men, marriage defines responsibilities to children. At divorce, men typically disengage from their biological children. When men remarry they may acquire new children whom they help to support. The review describes the effects on children of divorced mothers' and fathers' varying commitments to childrearing. It considers the difficulties that divorced parents experience when they try to continue to share responsibilities for children after separation, and it suggests avenues for future research.

Multisite Employment and Training Program Evaluations: A Tale of Three Studies

David Greenberg, Robert H. Meyer, and Michael Wiseman

RPT 710. 1994. 13 pp.

(Industrial and Labor Relations Review)

This paper explores the gains from multiplying the number of sites used in experimental evaluation of the effects of employment and training programs. Using a multilevel (hierarchical) statistical framework, the authors analyze the role of site multiplication in three recent program evaluations. Although several experiments have involved substantial numbers of sites, the potential benefits from such strategies are largely unrealized. The authors argue for more involvement of the federal government in designing and implementing evaluations that will allow analysis of how the interaction of client, program, and environmental variables affects outcomes.

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